Population responses to natural and human-mediated disturbances: assessing the vulnerability of the common hippopotamus (Hippopotamus amphibius)

Vulnerable wildlife populations can face a suite of anthropogenic activities that may threaten their persistence. However, human-mediated disturbances are likely to be coincident with natural disturbances that also influence a population. This synergism is often neglected in population projection models. Here I evaluate the effects of natural (rainfall fluctuation) and human disturbances (habitat loss and unregulated hunting) using a multi-matrix environmental state population model for the common hippopotamus (Hippopotamus amphibius). By evaluating each disturbance type (natural and human) alone and then together, I explicitly consider the importance of incorporating realistic environmental variability into population projection models. The model population was most strongly affected by moderate habitat loss, which yielded the highest probability of crossing the risk thresholds over the 60 year time period, although these probabilities were relatively low (£0.31). However, the likelihood of crossing the risk thresholds were two to five times as high when humanmediated and natural disturbances were considered together. When these probabilities were calculated per year of the simulation, the results suggested that even relatively mild human disturbances, when considered in conjunction with realistic natural disturbance, resulted in a high probability (>0.50) of substantial declines within decades. The model highlights the importance of integrating realistic natural disturbances into population models, and suggests that, despite locally abundant populations, protected hippopotamus populations may decline over the next 60 years in response to a combination of environmental fluctuations and human-mediated threats.